Abstract:
This paper provides some important data on the evolution of the
potato crop in Romania including aspects of research and development,
differentiated on the basis of period and location. The paper also presents an
analysis of the causes of the low potato yield per hectare in Romania. The
study is intended as a guide only, and can be used in making production
decisions, determining potential returns, preparing budgets and evaluating
production loans.
An analysis of the situation of the potato industry in Romania in
comparison with the potato sectors of other Central and East European
countries, over the period 1996–2008, reveals that—after Poland—Romania
occupies the second place in terms of potato acreage and total production.
In the case of potato market, a commodity that is less suitable for
long-distance commercialization, the segmentation is even stronger. In
Romania the prices are quite high (around 20 Euro/100 kg) and the
variations are sometimes quite spectacular (from 22 Euro/100 kg in 2005 to
34 Euro in 2006), unlike in Germany, where the prices and the price
variations are lower (prices range from 6.5 to 9.2 Euro/100 kg).
Starting from the specific situation of these main markets, an
evaluation of the effects of certain future reform measures in the period after
2013 is not easy at all. In order to provide a certain coherence to the
comparison between the two reform scenarios (moderate and radical), we
predicted that in the 2008–2013 period, Romania’s agriculture would reach
the stage of an almost full integration in the EU markets for each product
and the comparison is made between the situation at that moment (“Current
CAP” Scenario) and each of the two reform scenarios.
The hypothesis that define each scenario are synthetically expressed
by the price of the respective product.
In these conditions, the effects upon the producer welfare will be
obviously negative, while the effects upon the consumer welfare will be
positive. The question is whether the positive effects exceed the negative
ones, in each of the two reform scenarios. Furthermore, which of the two
scenarios produces the desired outcome for the decision-makers? The change
in producer welfare for the 6 selected products (wheat, maize, potatoes, pork,
poultry and beef) is negative. The producers lose as a result of CAP reform,
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in both of the scenarios, yet the loss is greater in the case of the radical
reform scenario. Consumers gain in welfare in both scenarios, and the
overall gain is higher than the producers’ loss, which result in a net positive
effect (at the level of the whole economy). Net welfare is higher in the radical
reform scenario than in the moderate reform scenario, which means that a
radical reform would be desired if the situation of producer welfare loss
could be well managed.
