Mapping the impact of recent climate change on viticultural potential in Romania

Abstract

Climate change affects the viticulture sector worldwide in different ways, some countries reporting negative impacts, other positive effects, depending on the type of climate in which they are located. Romania is an important wine-producing European country, with a long viticultural tradition. Our study aims to map the ecological potential for viticulture at country scale, using a GIS-based multi-criteria methodology, which quantifies and integrates the influences of climate, soil and relief factors. The soil and relief factors are considered stable in the analysed time period, while the climate factors are dynamic, their influence being assessed for two periods of time: the reference climate period (1961–1990) and the more recent period (1991–2013), affected by climate warming. The results show that the area suitable for viticulture has expanded during the last decades, new regions in the plateau, hilly and lower mountain areas shifting from restrictive to suitable for wine grape cultivation (25,245 km2, 10.6% of the country). On average, the upper limit vine growing has shifted from 612 m (1961–1990) to 860 m (1991–2013). As a consequence, the potential for white wines has migrated to higher elevations and latitudes, while the potential for red wine production has significantly increased at lower elevations. Overall, there is an increase in suitability for wine grape production for about one third of the country (76,833 km2, 32.2%). Such changes are likely to modify the typicity of traditional winemaking regions, compelling the producers to adapt through introducing of new grape varieties and technological changes.