Abstract:
West Nile virus (WNV) is a
re-emerging zoonotic pathogen that
represents a threat to both human and animal
health. It is difficult to estimate the impact of
WNV in the future, although many of the
climatic factors influencing its spread have
been identified. In this study, we used
bioclimatic indices to estimate those periods
that favour the growth of vector mosquito
populations and the incubation periods for
the virus. To this end, we studied the
climatic changes in the Romanian regions
where cases of WN infection have been
reported. Simulations were carried out for
2100 based on long-term scenarios.
Identifying the bioclimatic conditions which
can cause WNV outbreaks in Romania is
necessary to anticipate and thereby prevent
future epidemics. However, no extraordinary
weather events were registered in the years
with WNV outbreaks which could explain
such a high number of cases. Thus, in the
High Scenario (which will occur if actions to
control (GHG) gas emissions are not taken
or implemented effectively), the hatching
period is extended until November, with the
risk that adult mosquitoes are active
throughout the year, ensuring a high survival
rate of the virus within mosquitoes. In
addition, in the High Scenario, the
transmission period of the virus is extended
from April to October, which underlines the
need to establish monitoring and control
programmes for both mosquito populations
and the spread of the virus among the animal
and human populations.
